BTC Price Prediction: Will Bitcoin Reach $100,000 in 2026?

#BTC

• Technical Breakout is Paramount: The price is testing a major resistance zone between $93,420 and $94,000. A sustained breakout above this level is the most immediate technical prerequisite for a renewed rally toward $100,000.
• Institutional Demand vs. Profit-Taking: Record ETF inflows provide a constant underlying bid, but they are currently counterbalanced by evident profit-taking and sell orders ('sell walls') near all-time highs, creating short-term friction.
• Macro Sentiment Provides Tailwind: Positive developments like ETF endorsements from major banks and ongoing inclusion in global indexes (MSCI) strengthen the long-term investment thesis, helping to cushion pullbacks and maintain bullish structure.

BTC Price Prediction

Technical Analysis: BTC Approaches Critical Resistance Levels

BTC currently trades at $92,811, hovering NEAR the upper Bollinger Band at $93,420, which acts as immediate resistance. The 20-day moving average at $89,207 provides dynamic support. The MACD histogram remains negative at -1,115, indicating bearish momentum persists in the short term, though the signal line's position suggests potential for convergence. A decisive break above the $93,420 resistance could open a path toward $100,000, while failure may lead to a retest of the $89,200 support zone.

Market Sentiment: Institutional Inflows Clash with Technical Headwinds

Market sentiment presents a mixed picture. Significant institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs ($1.2B) and endorsements from firms like VanEck and Bank of America provide a strong fundamental tailwind, supporting the long-term $100K thesis. However, headlines about stiff resistance near $94,000, failed support tests, and a Supreme Court decision sparking a downtrend introduce near-term caution. The net effect is bullish conviction tempered by acknowledgment of current technical selling pressure.

Factors Influencing BTC’s Price

Bitcoin ETF Direction Shifts: Market Seeks Stability

The year began with strong inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, only to see a brief reversal as net outflows emerged. After recording $1.16 billion in net inflows over the first two trading days of 2026, the market witnessed a $243 million withdrawal on Tuesday. Bitcoin's price held steady around $92,000, suggesting a market in equilibrium rather than panic selling. Institutional activity appeared to reflect portfolio rebalancing rather than a flight from risk.

Fidelity's FBTC fund led the outflows with $312 million in withdrawals, while Grayscale's GBTC and Bitcoin Mini Trust also saw significant liquidations. Ark & 21Shares and VanEck's products closed in negative territory. BlackRock's IBIT fund provided a counterbalance, attracting $229 million in inflows on the same day, bringing its three-day total to $888 million. Market analysts maintain that the single-day outflow doesn't negate the robust demand seen at year's start.

VanEck's Bitcoin Buy Signal Emerges as Market Enters Undervalued Territory

VanEck's MarketVector Crypto Heat Index flashed its first Bitcoin buy signal since April 2025, registering at 16.8%—firmly in undervalued territory. The index, which relies on technical indicators rather than sentiment, suggests accumulating BTC as the 20-day SMA crossed above the 50-day SMA.

Historical data shows median returns of 20.4% over 90 days following such signals. Bitcoin currently trades above $93,700, up 7.5% weekly, signaling renewed institutional confidence in crypto's structural momentum.

Bitcoin ETFs Roar Into 2026 With $1.2B Inflows, Signaling Major Institutional Shift

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have stormed into 2026 with unprecedented momentum, capturing over $1.2 billion in net inflows within the first two trading days. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas likened the fervor to a lion's charge, projecting annual inflows could hit $150 billion—nearly six times 2025's totals. This explosive start follows a volatile year-end slump, with Bitcoin now stabilizing above $90,000.

BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) continues to dominate the ETF arena, accounting for the lion's share of Monday's $697 million single-day inflow. The resurgence suggests structural demand rather than speculative trading, as noted by Sygnum CIO Fabian Dori. ETF purchases are steadily absorbing circulating supply, potentially reshaping Bitcoin's long-term market dynamics.

Bitcoin Stabilizes After Pullback as Analysts Maintain $100K Outlook

Bitcoin's brief retreat this week proved short-lived as the cryptocurrency found firm support between $90,850 and $92,900. Market observers note the dip resembled a routine correction rather than a trend reversal, with buyers quickly absorbing sell orders. The defense of this support zone reinforces the bullish case that has prevailed since late November.

Technical analysts highlight $94,780 as the immediate resistance level to watch. A decisive break above this threshold could catalyze the next leg upward toward six-figure targets. The MOVE indicator's behavior suggests institutional participants remain active during pullbacks—a hallmark of healthy uptrends.

Market structure continues favoring bulls despite recent volatility. The absence of panic selling during the retracement aligns with historical patterns preceding major rallies. As one trader noted: 'This wasn't distribution—just profit-taking before higher highs.'

MSCI Retains Digital Asset Treasury Companies in Global Indexes, Boosting Crypto Market Sentiment

MSCI Inc. has decided to maintain Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) companies in its global indexes following a public consultation, marking a significant win for crypto-focused firms. The $18 trillion index provider's move ensures companies like MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) remain included, with MSTR shares rising 5% in after-hours trading to $167.7. The decision prevents a potential $2 billion valuation loss for affected firms.

Tokyo-based Metaplanet Inc. (3350) led the bullish charge among DATs, closing 8.9% higher. The ruling reflects growing institutional acceptance of Bitcoin-focused corporations, with MSCI noting the review aimed to maintain consistency in measuring operating companies rather than investment vehicles.

MSCI Postpones Crypto Reserve Company Delisting Decision Until 2026

MSCI, the global index provider tracked by major investment funds, has deferred its anticipated decision on delisting crypto reserve companies. Initially expected by January 15, the review is now postponed to 2026, sparing firms like MicroStrategy (MSTR) from immediate exclusion. The reprieve sent MSTR shares soaring from $157 to $170 in post-market trading.

The delay averts a potential liquidity crisis for digital asset treasury securities (DATSS), which faced billions in passive investment outflows had delisting occurred. MicroStrategy, nearing its MNAV 1 threshold, avoids forced Bitcoin sales and regains flexibility for future BTC acquisitions through share offerings. While the announcement carries caveats, the outcome is decidedly bullish for crypto-linked equities.

Bitcoin Faces Stiff Resistance Near $94,000 as Sell Walls Thicken

Bitcoin's rally shows signs of fatigue as it struggles to breach the $94,000 barrier. The cryptocurrency has faced repeated rejections since December, with order flow data revealing aggressive sell walls between $94,500 and $96,000 on major exchanges like Binance, Bitfinex, and Kraken.

Despite bullish momentum earlier in the week, the BTC price now hovers around $92,000. Heatmaps indicate dense sell-side liquidity clusters absorbing buy pressure, while dip buyers remain active near $93,500–$93,800. The market enters a decisive phase as bulls and bears clash at key levels.

'The order book tells the story,' says a Singapore-based trader. 'Until those sell walls break, upside looks capped.' Meanwhile, derivatives markets show muted activity, suggesting institutional players are waiting for clearer signals.

Bank of America Endorses Bitcoin ETFs as DeepSnitch AI Surges 116%

Traditional finance's embrace of cryptocurrency accelerates in early 2026. Bank of America has authorized its wealth advisers across Merrill Lynch, the private bank, and Merrill Edge platforms to proactively recommend spot Bitcoin ETFs. This move integrates Bitcoin exposure into standard portfolio discussions for thousands of financial advisers, signaling a structural shift in institutional adoption.

The approval covers four major Bitcoin ETFs—BlackRock, Fidelity, Bitwise, and Grayscale—selected for their liquidity and operational maturity. Advisers now initiate allocations without treating crypto as a niche request, reducing friction for capital inflows and normalizing digital assets as long-term holdings.

Meanwhile, DeepSnitch AI emerges as a standout performer, with its token soaring 116%. The project has deployed three of five planned AI monitoring tools, launched a functional dashboard, and maintains consistent development updates. Its presale surpassed $1 million, reinforcing its position in conversations about the next major crypto opportunities.

Cryptocurrency Markets Stumble as Bitcoin Fails to Hold Key Support Level

Bitcoin's attempted stabilization unraveled as the broader cryptocurrency market turned downward. The reversal came amid anticipation of a High Court decision on tariffs, triggering on-chain alerts that spooked investors.

The $98,800 level—identified by analyst anlcnc1 as critical for sustaining BTC's rally—failed to hold. This threshold represented the average cost basis for short-term holders, whose participation is essential for continued upward momentum.

Binance's BTC/Stablecoin Reserve Ratio, currently at 1.28, shows weakening support. A move above 1.50 would signal stronger buying pressure, but the metric continues trending downward.

Riot Gaming (RIOT) Stock: BTC Offload Signals Strategic AI Pivot

Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT) has executed a significant Bitcoin sell-off, liquidating 1,818 BTC worth approximately $161.6 million to bolster liquidity. An additional 383 BTC were sold in November for $37 million, leaving the company with 18,005 BTC in reserves. This strategic move aligns with funding Phase One of its AI data center expansion in Corsicana, Texas.

The miner's shares dipped 1.66% to $14.55 amid broader market softness, yet analysts view the BTC divestment as a disciplined approach to capital allocation. RIOT's 112-megawatt facility—slated for completion in 2027—now anchors its transition toward energy-efficient AI infrastructure.

Market observers note the pivot reflects a broader industry trend: Bitcoin miners are increasingly diversifying into high-performance computing to hedge against crypto volatility. RIOT's treasury management suggests a calculated bet on AI's long-term payoff over passive BTC accumulation.

Supreme Court Tariff Decision Sparks Bitcoin Downtrend

Bitcoin faces downward pressure as markets react to impending Supreme Court rulings on customs tariffs. The court's Friday decision—following a four-week recess—could invalidate previous trade policies, creating regulatory uncertainty that typically dampens crypto valuations.

Lower courts previously ruled the tariffs lacked proper authorization, and November's judicial signals suggest a reversal is likely. Such an outcome would negate months of trade negotiations, injecting volatility into risk assets. Cryptocurrencies often serve as sentiment barometers during institutional upheavals.

While no direct crypto legislation is under review, the digital asset market reacts sharply to macroeconomic policy shifts. Traders appear to be pricing in short-term turbulence, with Bitcoin leading the decline ahead of the verdict.

Will BTC Price Hit 100000?

Based on the current technical setup and market catalysts, a move to $100,000 is a plausible 2026 target, but not without significant hurdles. The convergence of massive institutional investment and positive regulatory developments creates a powerful foundational narrative. However, the price must first overcome substantial technical resistance.